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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still